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GDP | Economic Reports
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Real GDP (inflation-adjusted) growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate (three-month period). Read more...
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Real GDP
  Release Schedule 2021 USA Real GDP Economics   Growth
 
Real GDP (SAAR)
SCHEDULE 2021
No 1
No 2
No 3
No 4
No 5
No 6
No 7
No 8
No 9
No 10
No 11
No 12
Released Dates: 28.Jan.21 24.Feb.21 28.Mar.21 26.Apr.21 30.May.21 26.Jun.21 31.Jul.21 29.Aug.21 26.Sep.21 07.Nov.21 05.Dec.21 20.Dec.21
Released Week:
Released Day:
Prior:
3.1%
4.0%
                   
Prior Revised:
No
No
                   
Consensus:
1.0%
4.1%
                   
Consensus Low:
0.5%
3.9%
                   
Consensus High:
2.6%
4.4%
                   
Real GDP Q/Q:
4.0%
4.1%
                   
RATING:
Negative View
Positive View
Neutral View
Neutral View
Neutral View
Neutral View
Neutral View
Neutral View
Neutral View
Neutral View
Neutral View
Neutral View
Quarter for:
Q4-2020
Q4-2020
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q1-2021
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q2-2021
Q2-2021
Q3-2021
Q3-2021
Q3-2021
Type:
Advn
Prelim
Final
Advn
Prelim
Final
Advn
Prelim
Final
Advn
Prelim
Final
  Reports Explain Reports Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available Today's Week   Today's
         
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  Release Schedule 2021 USA Real GDP Economics   Growth
         
REAL GDP - CHART 1947 to Present
         
Top of Page
       
  Release Schedule 2021 USA Real GDP Economics   Growth
     
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

What is GDP?

GDP represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities. Real GDP (inflation-adjusted) growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate (three-month period).

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. GDP and output reports give insight into production levels and expectations for future output. Figures such as GDP are often used as overall gauges for the health of an economy.

Stock Market Investors

Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Investors in the stock market like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits.

Bond Market Investors


Bond investors are more highly sensitive to inflation and robust economic activity could potentially pave the road to inflation. By tracking economic data such as GDP, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

Real GDP, inflation-adjusted, growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate (three-month period).

It is labeled Real because each year's data is adjusted to account for changes in year-to-year prices.

A Nominal variable is one where the effects of inflation have not been accounted for. A Real variable is inflation adjusted.

In other words, if the gross GDP was calculated to be 6% higher than the previous year, but inflation measured 2% over the same period, GDP growth would be reported as 4%, or the net growth over the period.

GDP Components

GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

 
How the "GDP" Affects You?

Higher GDP:

The GDP Price Index is an indicator for inflation calculated by comparing the current GDP to GDP in the reference year. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of a country can be defined as the value of the total final output of all goods and services produced in a single year within a country's boundaries. The growth is expressed as a percent.

Impact Interest Rates:

Unexpectedly high quarterly GDP growth is perceived to be potentially inflationary if the economy is close to full capacity; this, in turn, causes bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise. Also, higher than expected GDP growth, good news about the economy, is bad news for the bond market because a strong report causes concern that the Fed might raise the Fed Funds rate to avoid higher inflation. This is bearish for the fixed income market.

Impact Inflation:

The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness. If real GDP grows too quickly, however, it can cause price inflation as firms are forced to bid against one another for increasingly scarce workers

Impact Stock Prices:

On one side higher than expected growth leads to higher profits and that's good for the stock market. On the other, it may increase expected inflation and lead to higher interest rates that are bad for the stock market.

Impact Exchange Rates:


Larger than expected GDP growth will tend to appreciate the exchange rate as it is expected to lead to higher interest rates.

Trade Deficit:


Any trade deficit is a drag on U.S. GDP growth, but a smaller deficit adds to growth, while a larger deficit decreases GDP growth.

Neo-Keynsian economic theory:

During peak periods of the business cycle when the economy is experiencing rapid growth in real GDP, employment will increase, and unemployment decrease, as businesses seek workers to produce a higher output. If real GDP grows too quickly, however, it can cause price inflation as firms are forced to bid against one another for increasingly scarce workers.

In contrast during trough periods of the business cycle the economy is experiencing declines in real GDP, and unemployment rates are high.

Employment and GDP

Annual growth of 2% generally adds only about 90,000 jobs a month, according to economists. That's not enough to drive down the unemployment rate, which is stuck at 8.2%. Healthier growth of 4% or more is needed to reduce unemployment significantly

Without more jobs, income growth is likely to remain sub-par and consumers are likely to remain cautious about spending.

Sluggish economic growth could compel the Federal Reserve to announce further efforts to bolster the economy. Fed officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday.

GDP REVISIONS AND FORECASTING

Revisions

The government provides three estimates of economic growth each reflecting more complete information than the previous one. Quarterly GDP reports are broken down into three announcements: advance, preliminary, and final. After the final revision, GDP is not revised again until the annual benchmark revisions each July. These revisions can be quite large and usually affect the past five years of data.

Forecasting

Economists are forecasting a 2.0% growth rate for the current quarter, which ends Friday, and a 2.1% rate in the fourth quarter. Even if an outright recession is avoided, the pace of growth isn't expected to be fast enough to make a serious dent in the nation's persistently high unemployment rate.

GDP is made up of:

Y = C + I + G + ( X-Import )

Y= GDP
C= Consumption
I= Investment
G= Government Spending
(X-M)= Net Exports,X=Exports,M=Imports.

U.S. GDP includes Toyotas produced in Alabama but excludes Cadillac's made in Canada. GDP includes all U.S. exports but excludes all U.S. imports since imports, by definition, are produced in some other country and are a part of that country’s GDP.

       
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Gross Domestic Product  
  Gross National Product  
  Corporate Profit  
  Productivity and Costs  
  Chicago Fed National Activity  
  Leading Indicators  
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DATA INFORMATION GDP
SOURCE Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce.
WEB www.bea.gov
FREQUENCY Quarterly
AVAILABILITY Usually during the fourth week of the month.
COVERAGE Data are for the previous quarter.
REVISIONS Yes
IMPORTANCE Growth - Very Important
         
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