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GDP | Economic Reports
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Real GDP (inflation-adjusted) growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate (three-month period).
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REAL GDP
Release dates for : USA Growth Domestic Product Release Dates 2012 2012 Release Dates 2013 2013
       
REAL GDP - CHART 1947 to Present
         
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2013 Release Dates for Real GDP (SAAR)
2013 SCHEDULE
No 1
No 2
No 3
No 4
No 5
No 6
No 7
No 8
No 9
No 10
No 11
No 12
Released Dates: 30.Jan.13 28.Feb.13 28.Mar.13 26.Apr.12 30.May.13 26.Jun.13 31.Jul.13 29.Aug.13 26.Sep.13 07.Nov.13 05.Dec.13 20.Dec.13
Released Week:
Released Day:
Prior:
3.1%
-0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
2.5%
2.4%
1.8%
1.7%
2.5%
2.5%
2.8%
3.6%
Prior Revised:
No
No
No
No
No
No
1.1%
No
No
No
No
No
Consensus:
1.0%
0.5%
0.6%
3.1%
2.5%
2.4%
1.1%
2.2%
2.7%
2.0%
3.1%
3.6%
Consensus Low:
0.5%
-0.1%
0.1%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
0.4%
2.0%
2.4%
1.5%
2.4%
3.3%
Consensus High:
2.6%
0.8%
0.8%
3.3%
2.9%
2.6%
2.0%
2.5%
3.1%
2.7%
3.6%
3.8%
Real GDP Q/Q:
-0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
2.5%
2.4%
1.8%
1.7%
2.5%
2.5%
2.8%
3.6%
4.1%
RATING:
Negative View
Positive View
Positive View
Positive View
Positive View
Negative View
Positive View
Positive View
Negative View
Positive View
Positive View
Positive View
Quarter for:
Q4-2012
Q4-2012
Q4-2012
Q1-2013
Q1-2013
Q1-2013
Q2-2013
Q2-2013
Q2-2013
Q3-2013
Q3-2013
Q3-2013
Type:
Advn
Prelim
Final
Advn
Prelim
Final
Advn
Prelim
Final
Advn
Prelim
Final
         
2013 Release Dates for GDP: Brief Explanation
DATE/WEEK GDP: HIGHLIGHTS FOR CONS/RANGE ACTUAL

The U.S. economy shrank in the fourth quarter for the first time since the recession, hurt by the biggest cut in defense spending in 40 years, fewer exports and sluggish growth in company stockpiles. The nation appeared to still be on a mild growth path if unusual factors are stripped out.

Q4-A
1.0%
-0.1%
Gross domestic product contracted by a 0.1% annual rate, down from 3.1% growth in the third quarter, based on the first of three readings by the Commerce Department
2012
0.5% to 2.6%
Negative View
The Commerce Department's second estimate, (Preliminary), was that the economy had grown at an annualised 0.1%. The first estimate was a 0.1% contraction.
Q4-P
0.5%
0.1%
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the US in the last three months of 2012 has been revised from showing contraction to growth. The GDP couldn't even reach the economists low-ball expectation of +0.5%. However, GDP wasn't negative because the government spending cuts is coming, therefore, the GDP will surely be negative in Q1 2014.
2012
-0.1% to 0.8%
Positive View
GDP expanded at a 0.4% annual rate in Q4-2012, the Commerce Department said, just below the 0.5% gain forecast. The growth rate was the slowest since the first quarter of 2011 and far from what is needed to fuel a faster drop in the unemployment rate.
Q4-F
0.6%
0.4%
The U.S. economy expanded at a sluggish pace in the fourth quarter although a big gain in business investment and higher exports of services led the government to push up its previous estimate for growth. Conclusion: U.S. growth at year end better than thought.
2012
0.1% to 0.8%
Positive View
The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.5% pace in the first three months of 2013, up from 0.4% in the fourth quarter, as consumer spending rose at the fastest rate in two years and businesses restocked warehouse shelves.
Q1-A
3.1%
2.5%
Yet government spending fell sharply again ands imports surged to act as drags on economic growth, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast growth to rise to 3.2%, so the less-than-expected number could weigh on U.S. markets.
2013
2.3% to 3.3%
Positive View
U.S. grew revised 2.4% in first quarter, Q1-2013. Updated government data shows faster consumer spending in the preliminary report. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter, down from an initial estimate of 2.5%.
Q1-P
2.5%
2.4%
The U.S. grew a touch slower in the first three months of 2013 than previously believed, mainly because of a slower buildup in inventories and a somewhat steeper drop in government spending. The ggod news was the increase in consumer spending the engine of the U.S. economy was revised up to 3.4% in the first quarter from an initial read of 3.2% . That's the fastest rate in more than two years and a good sign for the economy moving forward.
2013
2.25% to 2.9%
Positive View
The U.S. economy suddenly looks weaker, after the government revised its data for the first quarter.
Gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of economic activity -- rose at a mere 1.8% annual pace between January and March 2013, marking a sharp downward revision from the 2.4% pace reported by the Commerce Department last month.
Q1-F
2.4%
1.8%
The government revises its GDP figures several times, but economists weren't expecting such a dramatic change from the third estimate. The biggest downward revision was to personal consumption.
2013
2.1% to 2.6%
Negative View
Q2-2013 GDP growth topped expectations but partly due to first quarter GDP being revised down with annual revisions. GDP gained an annualized 1.7%, following a 1.1% rise in the first quarter. The prior estimate for the first quarter was 1.8%. Analysts had projected a 1.1% advance for second quarter GDP.
Q2-A
1.1%
1.7%
U.S. Treasuries prices weakened on Wednesday after reports showing economic growth accelerated in the second quarter and that private sector employment grew more than forecast in July 2013 arguably inched the Federal Reserve a step closer to cutting back its monetarystimulus.
2013
0.4% to 2.0%
Positive View
Real GDP growth for the second quarter 2013 was raised to an annualized rate of 2.55 compared to the initial estimate of 1.75 and compared to a fourth quarter rise of 0.1%. Expectations were for 2.2%.
Q2-P
2.2%
2.5%
The U.S. economy expanded more than estimated in the second quarter, providing evidence that growth is picking up as the nation overcomes the effects of federal tax increases and budget cuts.
2013
2.0% to 2.5%
Positive View
The U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 2.5% on an annual rate between April 2013 and June 2013 according to the latest official measure of the country's economic health.
Q2-F
2.7%
2.5%
The third and final estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) from the Department of Commerce was unchanged from its last. But it was below economists' forecasts, which had been predicting a slight pickup in the pace of growth.
2013
2.4% to 3.1%
Negative View
Gross domestic product rose at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, led by the biggest increase in inventories in more than a year as household purchases and business investment slowed, a Commerce Department report showed today in Washington.
Q3-A
2.0%
2.8%
For Q3-Advance GDP the median forecast of economists called for a 2% advance. Consumer spending climbed 1.5%, the smallest increase since 2011.
2013
2.5% to 2.7%
Positive View
According to a release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, third quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a rate of 3.6%, up from the BEA’s initial estimate of a 2.8% growth rate and higher than economist predictions of 3.1%. This is also an increase over second quarter GDP growth, which increased at a rate of 2.5%.
Q3-P
3.1%
3.6%
Economic growth is up while jobless claims are down, according to new economic data released Thursday morning. But in a case of “what’s good news is bad news,” U.S. markets are down, suggesting a fear that economic growth means a tapering of the Federal Reserve’s pump of money into the economy.
2013
2.4% to 3.6%
Positive View
The government's main growth gauge—gross domestic product—grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the third quarter, marking only the second time since the recovery began in 2009 that the output of goods and services expanded above 4%. Friday's report showed consumer spending—a key driver of the economy—grew at a 2% annual rate in the summer, instead of the previously estimated 1.4%.
Q3-F
3.6%
4.1%
Real GDP was revised up to 4.1% annualized, compared to the 3.6% second estimate and 2.5% in the second quarter. The upward revision was largely due stronger PCEs growth, a boost in the estimate for intellectual property, slightly higher exports, and slightly lower imports.
2013
3.3% to 3.8%
Positive View
         
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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

What is GDP?

GDP represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities. Real GDP (inflation-adjusted) growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate (three-month period).

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. GDP and output reports give insight into production levels and expectations for future output. Figures such as GDP are often used as overall gauges for the health of an economy.

Stock Market Investors

Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Investors in the stock market like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits.

Bond Market Investors


Bond investors are more highly sensitive to inflation and robust economic activity could potentially pave the road to inflation. By tracking economic data such as GDP, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

Real GDP, inflation-adjusted, growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate (three-month period).

It is labeled Real because each year's data is adjusted to account for changes in year-to-year prices.

A Nominal variable is one where the effects of inflation have not been accounted for. A Real variable is inflation adjusted.

In other words, if the gross GDP was calculated to be 6% higher than the previous year, but inflation measured 2% over the same period, GDP growth would be reported as 4%, or the net growth over the period.

GDP Components

GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

 
How the "GDP" Affects You?

Higher GDP:

The GDP Price Index is an indicator for inflation calculated by comparing the current GDP to GDP in the reference year. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of a country can be defined as the value of the total final output of all goods and services produced in a single year within a country's boundaries. The growth is expressed as a percent.

Impact Interest Rates:

Unexpectedly high quarterly GDP growth is perceived to be potentially inflationary if the economy is close to full capacity; this, in turn, causes bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise. Also, higher than expected GDP growth, good news about the economy, is bad news for the bond market because a strong report causes concern that the Fed might raise the Fed Funds rate to avoid higher inflation. This is bearish for the fixed income market.

Impact Inflation:

The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness. If real GDP grows too quickly, however, it can cause price inflation as firms are forced to bid against one another for increasingly scarce workers

Impact Stock Prices:

On one side higher than expected growth leads to higher profits and that's good for the stock market. On the other, it may increase expected inflation and lead to higher interest rates that are bad for the stock market.

Impact Exchange Rates:


Larger than expected GDP growth will tend to appreciate the exchange rate as it is expected to lead to higher interest rates.

Trade Deficit:


Any trade deficit is a drag on U.S. GDP growth, but a smaller deficit adds to growth, while a larger deficit decreases GDP growth.

Neo-Keynsian economic theory:

During peak periods of the business cycle when the economy is experiencing rapid growth in real GDP, employment will increase, and unemployment decrease, as businesses seek workers to produce a higher output. If real GDP grows too quickly, however, it can cause price inflation as firms are forced to bid against one another for increasingly scarce workers.

In contrast during trough periods of the business cycle the economy is experiencing declines in real GDP, and unemployment rates are high.

Employment and GDP

Annual growth of 2% generally adds only about 90,000 jobs a month, according to economists. That's not enough to drive down the unemployment rate, which is stuck at 8.2%. Healthier growth of 4% or more is needed to reduce unemployment significantly

Without more jobs, income growth is likely to remain sub-par and consumers are likely to remain cautious about spending.

Sluggish economic growth could compel the Federal Reserve to announce further efforts to bolster the economy. Fed officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday.

GDP REVISIONS AND FORECASTING

Revisions

The government provides three estimates of economic growth each reflecting more complete information than the previous one. Quarterly GDP reports are broken down into three announcements: advance, preliminary, and final. After the final revision, GDP is not revised again until the annual benchmark revisions each July. These revisions can be quite large and usually affect the past five years of data.

Forecasting

Economists are forecasting a 2.0% growth rate for the current quarter, which ends Friday, and a 2.1% rate in the fourth quarter. Even if an outright recession is avoided, the pace of growth isn't expected to be fast enough to make a serious dent in the nation's persistently high unemployment rate.

GDP is made up of:

Y = C + I + G + ( X-Import )

Y= GDP
C= Consumption
I= Investment
G= Government Spending
(X-M)= Net Exports,X=Exports,M=Imports.

U.S. GDP includes Toyotas produced in Alabama but excludes Cadillac's made in Canada. GDP includes all U.S. exports but excludes all U.S. imports since imports, by definition, are produced in some other country and are a part of that country’s GDP.

       
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DATA INFORMATION GDP
SOURCE Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce.
WEB www.bea.gov
FREQUENCY Quarterly
AVAILABILITY Usually during the fourth week of the month.
COVERAGE Data are for the previous quarter.
REVISIONS Yes
IMPORTANCE Growth - Very Important
         
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